Asymmetric information flow to G7 and Nordic equities markets during COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThis paper investigates the probable differential impact of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the equities markets of G7 and Nordic countries to ascertain possible interdependencies, diversification and safe haven prospects in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic over the short-, intermediate- and long-term horizons.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply a unique methodology in a denoised frequency-domain entropy paradigm to the selected equities markets (Li et al. 2020).FindingsThe authors' findings reinforce the operability of the entrenched market dynamics in the COVID-19 pandemic era. The authors divulge that different approaches to fighting the pandemic do not necessarily drive a change in the deep-rooted fundamentals of the equities market, specifically for the studied markets. Except for an extreme case nearing the end (start) of the short-term (intermediate-term) between Iceland and either Denmark or the US equities, there exists no potential for diversification across the studied markets, which could be ascribed to the degree of integration between these markets.Practical implicationsThe authors' findings suggest that politicians should pay closer attention to stock market fluctuations as well as the count of confirmed COVID-19 cases in their respective countries since these could cause changes to market dynamics in the short-term through investor sentiments.Originality/valueThe authors measure the flow of information from COVID-19 to G7 and Nordic equities using the entropy methodology induced by the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN), which is a data-driven technique. The authors employ a larger sample period as a result of this, which is required to better comprehend the subtleties of investor behaviour within and among economies - G7 and Nordic geographical blocs - which largely employed different approaches to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors' focus is on diverging time horizons, and the ICEEMDAN-based entropy would enable us to measure the amount of information conveyed to account for large tails in these nations' equity returns. Furthermore, the authors use a unique type of entropy known as Renyi entropy, which uses suitable weights to discern tailed distributions. The Shannon entropy does not account for the fact that financial assets have fat tails. In a pandemic like COVID-19, these fat tails are very strong, and they must be accounted for.

The role of lean information flows in disaster construction projects: exploring the UK's Covid surge hospital projects

A substantive body of work in project studies argues that an "information flow" lens is very useful in exploring the project management of construction. This paper posits that this is even more applicable to disaster construction projects and, furthermore, lean information flow may play a role in swiftly delivering the disaster construction project. The paper uses the qualitative empirics of the delivery of the UK's Covid surge hospital projects to demonstrate that lean information flows were employed in these projects and assisted in enabling delivery at speed. The paper also describes the autopoietic governance conditions that are necessary for lean information flows to flourish in disaster construction projects and the role that trust may play in these conditions. It warns against some of the drawbacks in enabling lean communication through autopoietic governance.

Market efficiency and information flow between the crude palm oil and crude oil futures markets

This study analyzes the efficiency of the crude palm oil (CPO) futures market by conducting a variance ratio test and comparing it to the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures market. We discover that the weak-form efficient market hypothesis holds for both the CPO and WTI futures markets despite the significant difference in their liquidity. Using a scaling exponent, we investigate speculative trading activities and find that trading CPO futures in expectation of significant returns does not strongly involve a high level of risk unlike WTI futures. Our findings regarding market efficiency of the two futures markets are supported by the significant integration of the two with similar level of information flow from each market to the other. To explore the role of speculation in their market integration, we introduce a natural experimental setting using the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which caused a sudden decrease in the demand for fuel. The bidirectional information flow between the two markets is intensified after the COVID-19 pandemic due to lower level of speculation. The findings suggest that (i) stakeholders in the CPO market need to pay attention to the crude oil markets to anticipate its price changes, (ii) investors can use WTI futures as a hedging tool against CPO futures as long as there is mutual information flow, and (iii) regulators should carefully implement new CPO futures market policy, as either asymmetric changes in speculation or unbalanced regulation with the WTI futures market can create market distortion and regulatory arbitrage. © 2022 The Authors

AI and the Automation of Warfare

Packer and Reeves also collaborated on the forthcoming co-authored book Prison House of the Circuit: Politics of Control from Analog to Digital (Packer, Nuñez de Villavicencio, Monea, Oswald, Maddalena, & Reeves, in press). [...]just two or three weeks ago, the U.N. released a report explaining that it's likely that the first instance of autonomous drones making their own decision to kill soldiers occurred in a skirmish in Libya in March 2020 (United Nations Security Council, 2021). [...]I think there's a general recognition by folks in the military, by journalists writing about this issue, by intellectuals, that there has been a shift in the past half century, 75 years, to a different kind of warfare. In terms of a paradigm, too, I'm also just interested because the American military, post-Vietnam, has described itself as subscribing to the idea of information warfare-using embedded journalists, managing the flows of information surrounding conflicts. Media doot only manipulate soldiers to fight better and citizens to support various military efforts but rather, the scale of warfare has reached a level of complication that without a vast logistical apparatus, war is going to be lost-that logistical terrain of war is going to be lost-and the "logistically dominant" force, nation, (or) group of allies will prevail.

Market efficiency and information flow between the crude palm oil and crude oil futures markets

This study analyzes the efficiency of the crude palm oil (CPO) futures market by conducting a variance ratio test and comparing it to the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures market. We discover that the weak-form efficient market hypothesis holds for both the CPO and WTI futures markets despite the significant difference in their liquidity. Using a scaling exponent, we investigate speculative trading activities and find that trading CPO futures in expectation of significant returns does not strongly involve a high level of risk unlike WTI futures. Our findings regarding market efficiency of the two futures markets are supported by the significant integration of the two with similar level of information flow from each market to the other. To explore the role of speculation in their market integration, we introduce a natural experimental setting using the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which caused a sudden decrease in the demand for fuel. The bidirectional information flow between the two markets is intensified after the COVID-19 pandemic due to lower level of speculation. The findings suggest that (i) stakeholders in the CPO market need to pay attention to the crude oil markets to anticipate its price changes, (ii) investors can use WTI futures as a hedging tool against CPO futures as long as there is mutual information flow, and (iii) regulators should carefully implement new CPO futures market policy, as either asymmetric changes in speculation or unbalanced regulation with the WTI futures market can create market distortion and regulatory arbitrage.

Information Streams in Health Facilities: The Case of Uganda

With the prevailing COVID-19 pandemic, the lack of digitally-recorded and connected health data poses a challenge for analysing the situation. Virus outbreaks, such as the current pandemic, allow for the optimisation and reuse of data, which can be beneficial in managing future outbreaks. However, there is a general lack of knowledge about the actual flow of information in health facilities, which is also the case in Uganda. In Uganda, where this case study was conducted, there is no comprehensive knowledge about what type of data is collected or how it is collected along the journey of a patient through a health facility. This study investigates information flows of clinical patient data in health facilities in Uganda. The study found that almost all health facilities in Uganda store patient information in paper files on shelves. Hospitals in Uganda are provided with paper tools, such as reporting forms, registers and manuals, in which district data is collected as aggregate data and submitted in the form of digital reports to the Ministry of Health Resource Center. These reporting forms are not digitised and, thus, not machine-actionable. Hence, it is not easy for health facilities, researchers, and others to find and access patient and research data. It is also not easy to reuse and connect this data with other digital health data worldwide, leading to the incorrect conclusion that there is less health data in Uganda. The a FAIR architecture has the potential to solve such problems and facilitate the transition from paper to digital records in the Uganda health system. © 2022 Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.

A Nonlinear Approach to Quantifying Investor Fear in Stock Markets of BRIC

The information flow between BRIC and relevant volatilities constitutes a complex network, which needs comprehensive analysis. We provide a rigorous investigation of information flow among stock markets of BRIC and the US VIX in a frequency-domain paradigm. Henceforward, the variation mode decomposition-based entropy approach is employed for the examination of diverse investment horizons and market conditions. First, we find that under stressed market conditions (lower quantiles), significant negative information flow exists between the BRIC constituents and the BRIC composite index. Also, under benign market conditions, we reveal similar dynamics as found at the lower quantiles, which enhances diversification. However, during market booms, we document more positive information flow between the assets and relevant to the redeployment of portfolios. Second, at low probability events representing market stress, we document potential negative information flow amid the stock markets and the US VIX for most investment horizons. Notwithstanding, the US VIX has the potential of transmitting positive information to the stock markets. However, at high market performance, we find more positive information flow amid the BRIC markets and VIX, generally implying long-term efficiency. Investors, portfolio managers, risk managers, and policy-makers should be wary of the heterogeneous and adaptive behaviour of BRIC stock markets with the VIX.

A CEEMDAN-Based Entropy Approach Measuring Multiscale Information Flow between Macroeconomic Conditions and Stock Returns of BRICS

We model a mixture of asymmetric and nonlinear bidirectional and unidirectional causality between four macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, GDP, global economic policy uncertainty, and relative CPI) and stock returns of BRICS economies in the frequency-domain using the information flow theory. The Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN)-based Rényi effective transfer entropy approach is used to establish dynamic flow of information between macroeconomic variables and stock returns of BRICS. The original return series suggested insignificant information flow between most macroeconomic variables and stock returns. However, we reveal both asymmetric and tail dependent analyses at diverse scales between macroeconomic variables and stock returns of BRICS economies. Moreover, we find negative significant flow of information between the variables, in that knowing the history of one variable (either stock or macroeconomic variable), in this case, indicates considerably more uncertainty than knowing the history of only the other variable (either stock or macroeconomic variable). We also observe that global economic policy uncertainty has the most significant adverse causal relationship with stock returns of BRICS, especially in the long term. These results have important implications that investors and policymakers should take into account. Regulators should consider instituting sound policy actions geared towards minimising long-term effects of external shocks and uncertainties.

JULIE SWANN

Swann discusses her nomination as president of INFORMS. She states that she is proud of the impact that INFORMS has made over its long history, and she is honored to be nominated for president. She adds that we are all aware our world is changing, and indeed, the pace of change has accelerated. The COVID-19 pandemic has hastened adoption of automation;ubiquitous data collection has led to algorithms governing society;and the Earth itself may be irrevocably altered believe we need to continue focusing on innovation, tying it to the impact of INFORMS and its membership, while ensuring inclusiveness across the organization. She thinks we can identify existing challenges and successes, and consider what changes are needed. Modifications may be needed across INFORMS' infrastructure, information flow or even incentives, to help align decisions across the enterprise.

Dynamics of Information Flow between the Chinese A-Share Market and the U.S. Stock Market: From the 2008 Crisis to the COVID-19 Pandemic Period.

The relationship between the Chinese market and the US market is widely concerned by researchers and investors. This paper uses transfer entropy and local random permutation (LRP) surrogates to detect the information flow dynamics between two markets. We provide a detailed analysis of the relationship between the two markets using long-term daily and weekly data. Calculations show that there is an asymmetric information flow between the two markets, in which the US market significantly affects the Chinese market. Dynamic analysis based on weekly data shows that the information flow evolves, and includes three significant periods between 2004 and 2021. We also used daily data to analyze the dynamics of information flow in detail over the three periods and found that changes in the intensity of information flow were accompanied by major events affecting the market, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic period. In particular, we analyzed the impact of the S&P500 index on different industry indices in the Chinese market and found that the dynamics of information flow exhibit multiple patterns. This study reveals the complex information flow between two markets from the perspective of nonlinear dynamics, thereby helping to analyze the impact of major events and providing quantitative analysis tools for investment practice.

CAUSALITY, INFORMATION FLOW, AND CO-MOVEMENT ANALYSIS OF MAJOR STOCK INDICES

Stock indices are key indicators of the economy since they indicate the strength of a country's stock market. For this reason, causality, information flow and co-movement analysis of stock indices gain importance in comparing countries' economies. Here, we apply a novel approach by analyzing the results of two different methodologies;in wavelet coherence (WTC) analysis, the co-movement between stock indices provided and coherent areas can be shown, and information flow is indicated for five-year periods, especially on coherent zones by Transfer Entropy (TE), which detects cause-and-effect relations. This paper analyzed the information flow and co-movement among FTSE100 in the United Kingdom, the DAX in Germany and S&P500 Index in the United States stock indices. Three different results are obtained as follows: (1) DAX is on the leading side in general for five-year periods, (2) bidirectional information flows arise for every pair in the coherent periods and (3) TE-guided WTC analysis shows that TE sign change can be explained by phase angle direction obtained with WTC. These results indicate that both the methods yield proper outcomes in coherent time zones and during financial crisis like the COVID period, which we have faced for two years;for this reason, the results were also obtained for the COVID period, and in general, that shows DAX dominated other indices. We published this study to help researchers understand the connectedness between stock indices and investors avoiding risk in their stock portfolios, especially during financial crisis periods. © 2022 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Viruses as Living Systems—A Metacybernetic View

The debate over whether viruses are living organisms tends to be paradigmatically determined. The metabolic paradigm denies that they are, while new research evidences the opposite. The purpose of this paper is to deliver a generic model for viral contexts that explains why viruses are alive. It will take a systems biology approach, with a qualitative part (using metacybernetics) to provide deeper explanations of viral contexts, and a quantitative part (using Fisher Information deriving from the variational principle of Extreme Physical Information) which is in principle able to take measurements and predict outcomes. The modelling process provides an extended view of the epigenetic processes of viruses. The generic systems biology model will depict viruses as autonomous entities with metaphysical processes of autopoietic self-organisation and adaptation, enabling them to maintain their physical viability and hence, within their populations, mutate and evolve. The autopoietic epigenetic processes are shown to describe their capability to change, and these are both qualitatively and quantitatively explored, the latter providing an approach to make measurements of physical phenomena under uncertainty. Viruses maintain their fitness when they are able to maintain their stability, and this is indicated by information flow efficacy. A brief case study is presented on the COVID-19 virus from the perspective that it is a living system, and this includes outcome predictions given Fisher Information conditions for known contexts.

Assessment of Institutional Linkages and Information Flow within the Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation: Case of Dakahlia Governorate, Egypt

Institutional linkages and information flow between agricultural organizations play a critical role in addressing sustainability issues and promoting agrarian innovation. The aim of this study was to evaluate institutional relations and information between the various actors within the agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS). The study focused on eight actors within the AKIS in Dakahlia governorate of Egypt, namely policy, extension, research, agricultural cooperatives, higher education, secondary education, credit, and the private sector. Thus, the survey sample included 11 representatives of each actor with 88 respondents. Data were collected by a standardized questionnaire distributed online. The graph theoretical technique was used for the quantitative assessment of information flow and institutional linkages established among actors. The findings indicated that agricultural extension ranked first about their real cause and effect on the rest of the system, having a value of 7.95. Two critical information pathways within the AKIS sustained innovation outcomes: (1) higher education–extension–agricultural cooperatives, (2) research–extension–agricultural cooperatives. The results also revealed that agricultural cooperatives ranked second after the extension component on the extent of supplying information to other members in the AKIS, with a value of 4.8. In contrast, the highest component received information from other components (7.6). By analyzing institutional linkages and information flow, this article gives insights to policymakers on the mechanisms that still need to be strengthened and the information gaps between actors to address the challenges of sustainable rural development.

Multi-Frequency Information Flows between Global Commodities and Uncertainties: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic

Owing to the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on world economies, it is expected that information flows between commodities and uncertainties have been transformed. Accordingly, the resulting twisted risk among commodities and related uncertainties is presumed to rise during stressed market conditions. Therefore, investors feel pressured to find safe haven investments during the pandemic. For this reason, we model a mixture of asymmetric and non-linear bi-directional causality between global commodities and uncertainties at different frequencies through the information flow theory. Consequently, we utilise the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and the Rényi effective transfer entropy techniques to establish the dynamic flow of information. The intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from the CEEMDAN are carefully extracted into multi-frequencies through cluster analysis to reconstruct the series into high, medium, and low frequencies in addition to the residue. We utilise daily data from December 31st, 2019, to March 31st, 2021, to provide insights into the COVID-19 pandemic. The correlation coefficients and variances demonstrate that the high frequency (IMFs 1–4) which measures the short-term dynamics is the dominant frequency, suggesting short-lived market fluctuations relative to real economic growth for institutional investors. Moreover, outcomes from the multi-frequency entropy indicate a negative bi-directional causality of information flow between global commodities and uncertainties, especially in the long term. Generally, the findings present pertinent inferences for portfolio diversification, policy decisions, and risk management schemes for global commodities and markets volatilities. We, therefore, advocate that market volatilities act as effective hedges for global commodities, and they clearly act as balancing assets rather than substitutes in the long-term dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors who delayed in investing within financial markets of commodities and market volatilities are likely to minimise their portfolio risks.

Assessment of Features between Multichannel Electrohysterogram for Differentiation of Labors

Electrohysterogram (EHG) is a promising method for noninvasive monitoring of uterine electrical activity. The main purpose of this study was to characterize the multichannel EHG signals to distinguish between term delivery and preterm birth, as well as deliveries within and beyond 24 h. A total of 219 pregnant women were grouped in two ways: (1) term delivery (TD), threatened preterm labor (TPL) with the outcome of preterm birth (TPL_PB), and TPL with the outcome of term delivery (TPL_TD);(2) EHG recording time to delivery (TTD) ≤ 24 h and TTD > 24 h. Three bipolar EHG signals were analyzed for the 30 min recording. Six EHG features between multiple channels, including multivariate sample entropy, mutual information, correlation coefficient, coherence, direct partial Granger causality, and direct transfer entropy, were extracted to characterize the coupling and information flow between channels. Significant differences were found for these six features between TPL and TD, and between TTD ≤ 24 h and TTD > 24 h. No significant difference was found between TPL_PB and TPL_TD. The results indicated that EHG signals of TD were more regular and synchronized than TPL, and stronger coupling between multichannel EHG signals was exhibited as delivery approaches. In addition, EHG signals propagate downward for the majority of pregnant women regardless of different labors. In conclusion, the coupling and propagation features extracted from multichannel EHG signals could be used to differentiate term delivery and preterm birth and may predict delivery within and beyond 24 h.

Situated Information Flow between Food Commodity and Regional Equity Markets: An EEMD-Based Transfer Entropy Analysis

The intrinsic information shared by financial assets provides a means of assessing their mutual linkages. In times of crisis, spillovers and information flow between markets increase, and this drives empirical investigations into the degree of connectedness between financial assets. In the context of commodity markets, empirical evidence about the mutual information shared and its influence on portfolio management is largely unknown. This study examines the situated information between the food commodities (cereals, dairy, food, meat, vegetable oil, and sugar) of the FAO and regional stock markets’ returns. From the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD)-based Rényian transfer entropy analysis employed, we find significant bidirectional information flow between the food commodities and regional equity markets. Our findings divulge that the diversification potentials of food commodities rest in the long term, with sugar being a consistent diversifier across all investment horizons. The investment and policy implications of our findings are further discussed.

RESPONSES FOR FUTURE SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS

The crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic lead to shocks in the global supply chains in 2020 and 2021. During the past two years - the trade wars, the effects on supply and demand and the ensuing logistical chaos that result from the rapid return to trade - have exposed vulnerabilities in firms' production strategies and supply chains. The paper is based on data from empirical research, expanding on the vulnerabilities of supply chain operations during global disruptions, focusing on both internal and external aspects of the companies. The research led to the discovery of future challenges which modern supply chains have to adapt to, through the possible digitalization of the supply chains with its analyzed benefits and drawbacks. Digitalization can synchronize various elements by eliminating manual processes and spreadsheets and replacing them with digital systems in companies that unite stakeholders around the world, improving communication, collaboration and ensuring the free flow of information in real time and by including each member in the supply chains. Based on data from the research, the paper presents detailed responses on various disruptions in supply chains. Organizations that are advanced in supply chain planning show key behaviors that drive their superior performance, enabling them to position themselves successfully and to adapt to most kinds of disruptions and momentary uncertainty.

TRANSPORT COSTS AND THEIR POSITION IN THE LOGISTICS CHAIN

The article is focused on logistic costs in transport. Logistics costs are an important type of business costs. The author calculates a model example of optimization of logsitic costs in transportation. Currently available on all major markets competitive, the companies are high requirements. Enterprise to survive in this environment, they must gain a competitive advantage over others. One of the competitive advantages may become a well designed logistics system. Logistics, as a scientific discipline and management tool, has recently attaches increasing importance. It deals with the optimal coordination, harmonization, linking and optimizing the flow of raw materials, semi-finished products and services, but the flow of information and finance. In all these areas is bound by a large number of funds, their planning and management is therefore very important for businesses.

The Temporal and Spatial Bias of Information Flow on New Media Platforms during Covid-19 Pandemic

Since December 2019, a new infectious disease, " corona virus disease " (COVID-19), mainly lung lesion, has been emerging in China. The outbreak of covid-19 coincided with the Chinese New Year in 2020. The rapid spread of the disease triggered public panic and an overwhelming number of news reports on new media platforms. However, information does not always equate with the way of communication. The communication bias happened in the flow of information. This paper takes the information flow about covid-19 before 26th December, 2020 as a model, and compares the time of information flow in the early development of the epidemic with the approach of Edmund Carpenter's "explorations in media and anthropology" and Harold A. Innis' "the bias of communication ". The bias of time and of information delivered during the pandemic is examined. The study further focuses on the reflection and response of Chinese new media platforms and information platforms towards the public opinion management.

Logistics Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa and Opportunities for Digitalization

Improvements in logistics performance are considered to be a significant driver of economic growth. Digitalization in logistics, which includes enhanced tracking systems, digitized flows of information, artificial intelligence and automation, has further enabled globalized trade. However, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies, majorly export-commodity-dependent, still lag behind, grappling with inadequate policy frameworks, huge infrastructure deficits and trade barriers which result in a broken supply chain that negatively impacts growth. This study aims to investigate existing challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa, the potentials for the region to leapfrog traditional supply chain practices and adopt digital technologies, by evaluating previous findings in a systematic manner and augmenting these findings through semi-structured interviews. Systematic literature analysis conducted on published academic literature within a specific period and based on predefined criteria resulted in 287 articles being used for the final analysis. The most common logistics challenges and potential solutions have been identified. Semi-structured interviews with logistics service providers in the region have been conducted to establish the findings highlighted in the systematic literature review. The interviews showed that human capital training is a major factor when adopting digital technologies, and a focus on infrastructure investments, regulatory and institutional framework improvements will boost economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.